There are two Gambian mobile operators: Gamcel (which is a subsidiary of the incumbent) and Africell (which is owned by Lebanese investors).
The two companies are almost neck-and-neck in terms of subscribers: Gamcel claims 160,000 customers and Africell 130,000 customers. Opinions differ as to the long-term potential: Gamcel sees 500,000 subscribers but Africell predicts 350,000 by 2008 (against a population that will have grown to 1.7 million). Gamcel says it offers coverage to 80% of the population whilst Africell says it covers somewhere between 75-85%.

Gamcel is currently suffering network problems. A survey by its competitor Africell found that 76% of those surveyed had problems with Gamcel’s network and 85% had network problems at night, the busiest time for the network. Gamcel says it has a switch capacity for 200,000 subscribers but has gone out to tender for equipment and software that will give it capacity for 400,000 subscribers. GPRS is being considered as an option within this tender but Africell says it will be two years before it will consider GPRS. But Africell has a network that can be expanded by increments that gives it greater flexibility as it grows.

In seeking to compete with Africell, it has adopted strategies that have in the short-term exacerbated its congestion problems. In November last year it dropped its prices by 50% and admits that this led to network congestion. It has sought to ration capacity across three time bands in the day, making the more congested calling times more expensive.

It’s always difficult to tell the difference between two close competitors but Africell seems to have the edge. With the lucrative international roaming traffic Africell already has in place a network of agreements and publicly advertises its service whilst Gamcel (which has just signed with Indian-owned Zius) is still at the testing stage.

And what of the new third entrant? Gamcel’s General Manager Alhaji Cham says that he is “not worried” and Africell’s Business Development Manager Shadi Al-Gerjawi: ”The existence of the third operator will not hit us. Our subscribers are happy and Gamcel’s are not. Gamcel has not been able to set up a system so that their subscribers can send SMS to ours and vice-versa.”

The ‘Achilles heel’ that Africell is addressing is that if you work in Government, you are almost expected to use a Gamcel mobile. Its survey of Government employees revealed that 71% of respondents in Government employment had Gamcel subscriptions, 13% Africell and 11% both. With Africell’s more sanguine prediction of a total of 350,000 subscribers by 2008, this leaves three operators searching for 60,000 new subscribers and the inevitability that the weakest operator of the current two will lose ground.