Elections due to be held in Nigeria next April could be the genuine litmus test of democracy in the country - the first time in history that power would be transferred from one elected Nigerian president to another.

But with the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in turmoil and President Olusegun Obasanjo and his deputy, Atiku Abubakar, at daggers-drawn, there are fears the vote could prove to be a spectacular failure. For Africa's most populous country and its leading oil exporter, such an outcome could trigger instability across a large swathe of Africa and send shocks through the global oil market.

“The average Nigerian has come to see that government is drifting,” said Clement Nwankwo, a leading human rights lawyer and founder of the Constitutional Rights Project. “People have no confidence in the electoral process and I fear we are headed for the rocks.”

With Obasanjo and Abubakar engaged in an increasingly acrimonious political war, government has slowed, confidence in the electoral process is low and people perceive the electoral commission as unprepared to run a proper vote, said Nwankwo.

This is a contrast to six years ago when a brief transitional government that followed the sudden death of military ruler Sani Abacha organised democratic elections that put an end to decades of mostly military rule.

The generals in power had argued that only the military was strong enough to keep Nigeria’s numerous and diverse population from pulling the country apart.

Now politicians are struggling with divisions of their own.

Political divide

In the latest twist to the political tussle, the PDP in September said it had suspended Abubakar for three months, citing official corruption allegations against him. With the party's presidential nominations due before the end of the suspension, Abubakar has effectively lost the chance to run on the PDP platform. However, he could still form his own party to contest the presidency.

Obasanjo and Abubakar had made long-suspected differences public more than a year ago when the president accused Abubakar of disloyalty and the vice president alleged there was a plot to create a life presidency for his boss. But things have taken a new turn since Obasanjo forwarded two reports early in September to the National Assembly detailing allegations of corruption against Abubakar.

Obasanjo’s office says an investigation was launched into some of Abubakar’s dealings following a request by the US Department of Justice in conjunction with its corruption probe of American Congressman William Jefferson. US investigators earlier in the year had searched Abubakar’s Washington home as part of the probe.

Abubakar fired back allegations of his own, implicating Obasanjo in the running of questionable bank accounts. Cheques and other documents have been released by the vice president’s office allegedly showing that Obasanjo’s agents and relatives received some three billion naira (US $23 million).

Abubakar insists the corruption allegations against him stem from his opposition to a move by Obasanjo’s supporters to change the constitutional two-term limit to allow the president another term. Parliament defeated the proposal in May.

However, under the 1999 constitution, Obasanjo can remain in office if the election for his successor proves inconclusive.

Another attempt will be made to extend the tenure of the present crop of political office holders across the board, legislative and executive, by two years on the pretext of assuaging tension and preventing a vacuum,” a group of senators who voted against an extension of Obasanjo's stay said in a statement on Thursday.

The group, led by Senator Uche Chukwumerije, has also suggested that efforts could be made to weaken the opposition and install a surrogate government headed by Obasanjo.

Violence on rise

Abubakar was instrumental in garnering support in Nigeria’s mainly Muslim north to help bring Obasanjo, a Christian southerner, to the presidency.

Northerners have traditionally wielded power in Nigeria, while the south produces most of the country’s wealth. Militants in the oil-rich southern Niger Delta have stepped kidnappings of oil workers and attacks on petroleum installations in recent months to force the government to give the region more control over Nigeria’s oil resources.

Cases of political violence in general are on the increase as rival interest groups seek to force their will on recalcitrant opponents. In a replay of political assassinations rife in the run-up to the 2003 elections, three prominent gubernatorial aspirants have been killed in the past two months. Political rallies often descend into violence.

The head of Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission, Maurice Iwu, has defended his agency's preparations as adequate. But he said Nigeria’s often violent and corrupt political environment could undermine it success.

“We are convinced that unless the rules of the game and the environment are made conducive for people, the exercise of conducting elections will continue to fall short of the yearnings of the people,” Iwu said.

Despite misgivings over the polls, Obasanjo this week assured Nigerians he was on course to conduct a successful vote.

"For the first time since independence in 1960, Nigeria will have a transition from one government to another and from one personality to another," he said in a meeting with Western diplomats.

A failed election five years after independence triggered Nigeria’s first military coup. The country then plunged into a civil war in which more than one million people died, mostly from starvation.