Many voters in Nigeria’s general elections in April say that little appears to have changed from previous elections that were characterised by massive fraud and violence followed by military takeovers.

"They [electoral authorities] are just going to write whatever figures they like and declare whoever they want to be the winners," Joe Adeyanju, a 44-year-old car mechanic in Lagos told IRIN.

"Our vote never counts", he said

The same sentiment can be found amongst many Nigerians, whether in the Muslim north or the Christian and animist south. As they see it, the decision of who will rule Nigeria is being made not by voters but by the country’s corrupt and oppressive elite.

Some 64 million Nigerians - less than half the 140 million population - are registered to vote for the country's 36 state governors and state parliaments which are to take place on 14 April followed by elections for president and the federal legislature on 21 April.

“I will exercise my franchise to vote but I won’t call it democracy,” said Prince Wegwa the head of a youth association in the village of Aluu in Rivers State.

Wegwa said he just hopes the violence does not get out of hand and that fraud does not become an excuse for the army to retake power.

Violent disputes over elections in the 1960s led to the country's first coup and the bloody civil war. Election rigging in 1983 provided a pretext for the military to seize power during which they annulled elections in 1993 that were considered largely free and fair.

But the 1999 elections which brought to power Nigeria’s current president, Olusegun Obasanjo, was marred, according to both local and international observers, by ballot stealing and the falsification of figures.

Even worse were the 2003 elections in which Obasanjo was reelected to his current final term in office. The fraud was so widespread in Obasanjo’s home state of Ogun that the Supreme Court eventually annulled the results although new elections were never held.

The appeal court also decided that elections for governor in Anambra state were rigged, and after three years the governor, Chris Ngige of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) was forced to step down.

New elections in old kleptocracy

This election will be different according to officials at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which is charged with organizing the elections. Now we have an electronic register the head of INEC Maurice Iwu, told IRIN. "Voter registration is where the rigging starts, which makes it important that we have a reliable register and a way of identifying the voter," he said

He said new voter cards would also make voting more reliable. The cards must have both the holders photograph and thumbprint and must match the information in the electoral body's database. This will eliminate people registering more than once as well as ballot-stuffing he said, which had been widespread during previous elections.

Still many Nigerians are sceptical that the electoral system can stand firm against the widespread corruption in their country and the ruthless battle to control the country’s estimated $40 billion a year oil wealth, much of which lands in the personal bank accounts of whomever gets to hold office.

With security forces often favouring candidates from the ruling party, the opposition often recruit personal militias, said Olamide Kayode, a Lagos-based lawyer and political analyst.

But he and other analysts see the threat of violence is sometime an effective deterrent to fraud. “Often it takes a balance of terror between rival groups to prevent rigging from taking place,” said Kayode.

As an example he cited the 2003 elections in Lagos state where fears of a violent reaction to cheating prevented the ruling party from claiming victory.

In the current election campaign opposition parties are calling on supporters to be vigilant. In the north, presidential hopeful Muhammadu Buhari has called on Nigerians to oppose all rigging while a slogan for the Peoples Progressive Party is ‘Vote and protect your vote’.

Hotspots

Already they have been assassinations of prominent political figures including one of ruling party candidate for governor of Lagos state Funso Williams and the candidate for governor in southwestern state of Ondo.

Political tensions are also adding to existing ethnic and religious animosities. Clashes have occurred in the south-western city of Abeokuta and in rural towns in central Benue state, claiming several lives.

Ongoing unrest in the oil-producing Niger Delta region has grown into a full-blown insurgency, according to conflict analysts including the International Crisis Group. The situation has markedly deteriorated in recent months with almost daily kidnappings of foreigners.

But perhaps the greater risk to Nigeria’s democracy is a bitter political feud between Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

The two former allies fell out after Abubakar opposed moves to amend the constitution and enable Obasanjo stay on as president beyond the current two-term limit. Their relationship become publicly acrimonious starting in May 2006 when the move was defeated in parliament, with Obasanjo vowing his deputy will not succeed him.

Abubakar left the ruling PDP to become the presidential candidate of newly formed opposition Action Congress. Then in September Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission brought allegations of corruption against Abubakar concerning his use of a petroleum fund. In February that became grounds for INEC to exclude Abubakar from running in the elections.

Abubakar and his party continue to conduct their campaign in the hope that the decision will be reversed but observers fear that serious violence could yet break out throughout the country.

Many voters say the fighting amongst the political elite are what really decide who will rule them while the elections are just a show.

Voter turn out dropped to 18 million in 2003, less than a third of all the registered voters.

"I'll wait to see if they're actually counting votes," said the Lagos auto mechanic. If I see signs of rigging, I won't bother.”