Harvests in many parts of northern Nigeria were so poor this year that many farmers may not have the means to plant next season.

“A lot of farmers will have nothing to invest,” said Sabo Nanono, head of Kano’s chapter of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), the umbrella union of Nigerian commercial farmers.

He said at least 50 percent of produce was lost because of inadequate rainfall and locust invasions. “We therefore look towards next year with trepidation because we will not even recoup half of the money we invested on our farms,” Nanono said.

The season before last, cereal prices were low but many farmers had bumper harvests and plenty of seeds for planting. “But poor yields this season have thrown us into a deeper quagmire,” Nanono said.

The problem is most immediate for subsistence farmers in the northern states of Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, Borno, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi.

Rain fell only four times this year in some areas. The loss has been colossal, Sule Maikaza, a farmer in Rajo village in Jigawa State, told IRIN. “I used to get at least 30 bags [of grain including sorghum and cowpea] every season but this season I got only 10,” he said.

“I don’t know how we are going to face next season because a hungry person [is a tired person and] can’t cultivate much.”

Traditionally, subsistence farmers set aside a portion of their harvest to sow for the following season but Maikaza said that he would not be able to do that now. ”I have 12 people to feed,” he said. “If I have only 10 bags you can’t expect me to keep some for planting next season.”

The situation could become so bad that it could cause the collapse of family structures, Jigawa state governor Sule Lamido told IRIN. “The food situation is so disastrous that farmers could flee, dumping their wives and children.”

Commercial farmers

But it is commercial farmers who will suffer the greatest losses, the farmers union's Nanono said, explaining that many have taken short-term loans from banks which they are supposed to repay with the profits they make from the harvest.

“Those of us who borrowed money from banks are not thinking of farming next season,” Nanono said. “We are now preoccupied with raising money to pay the loans to avoid having to pay more interest or having investments taken over by creditors.”

To mitigate the losses, the state has earmarked 400 million naira (US$3.3million) for emergency grain and livestock feed. Most commercial farmers in northern Nigeria combine crop farming with animal husbandry. After the harvest they sell the crops for profit while they keep the remaining plant stalks as feed for their herd.

This supplements factory-produced chaff they have to purchase. But now farmers have to raise money to buy chaff as well as find plant stalk to feed their livestock or else dispose of their animals.

Already the cost of animal feed has soared. A 50kg bag of chaff that sold last season for $5 now costs $17.

“Our cattle are malnourished,” Nanono said. “The cost of feeding them without supplementary rations from farm by-products is too high for a commercial farmer.”

The governors of the eight states affected have announced that through the Northern Governors’ Forum they will work together to tackle the problem, without specifying yet what measures it plans to take.