The International Crisis Group (ICG) has cautioned that new dynamics in Sudan's Darfur crisis could result in an Arab insurgency and a possible spillover of the conflict into neighbouring Kordofan.

"Inter-Arab dissension has added new volatility to the situation on the ground," ICG states in a report, Darfur's New Security Reality, launched on 26 November in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. "Some tribes are trying to solidify land claims before the UN/AU [UN-African Union] hybrid peacekeeping operation in Darfur (UNAMID) arrives."

This, ICG said, had led to fighting with other Arab tribes, which have realised that the Khartoum-based central government "is not a guarantor of their long-term interests and have started to take protection into their own hands".

"There is now a high risk of an Arab insurgency, as well as potential for alliances with the predominantly non-Arab rebel groups," ICG added.

ICG noted that the Darfur conflict had changed radically in the past year and "not for the better". The conflict has caused the deaths of at least 200,000 civilians and the displacement of more than two million others.

"While there are many fewer deaths than during the high period of fighting in 2003-2004, [the conflict] has mutated, the parties have splintered, and the confrontations have multiplied," ICG stated. "Violence is again increasing, access for humanitarian agencies is decreasing, international peacekeeping is not yet effective and a political settlement remains far off."

Among other recommendations, ICG said the new realities in Darfur underscore the need to broaden UN-AU mediated peace talks that began on 27 October in Sirte, Libya. It said the talks should include the "full range of actors and constituencies involved in the conflict, including its primary victims, such as women, but also Arab tribes.

"Core issues that drive the conflict, among them land tenure and use, including grazing rights, and the role and reform of local government and administrative structures, were not addressed in the DPA [Darfur Peace Agreement, signed in May 2006] but left to the Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and Consultation process that was supposed to follow the negotiations," ICG stated. "They need to be on the agenda of the new negotiations if an eventual agreement is to gain the wide support the DPA has lacked."

Sally Chin, ICG's Nairobi-based Horn of Africa analyst, said the DPA, signed between the government and a single rebel faction, had failed because it was limited in scope and in signatories, which had hurt the ongoing peace process.

She said the central government's strategy in Darfur was one of "chaos, divide-and-rule and demographic manipulation".

“The NCP [National Congress Party] wants Darfur in chaos to limit the room for an opposition to emerge, while resettling key allies on cleared land and defying [UN] Security Council resolutions by integrating its Janjaweed irregulars into official security structures instead of disarming them," according to the ICG.

It added that the ruling party was pursuing "destructive policies" in Darfur while at the same time resisting key provisions in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the North-South war, "thus triggering a crisis in that process".

François Grignon, ICG's Africa programme director, said the priority was to end fighting in Darfur and this could be done with the negotiation of a ceasefire that includes a penalty for violations.

"A ceasefire without costs means no commitment from the parties involved," Grignon said. "Political will is one of the commodities that is in rare supply in such a situation and putting costs to violation of the commitment the parties make is one way of ensuring progress in the peace process."

Previous ceasefire declarations, the last one made by the Sudanese government during the start of the Darfur peace talks in Sirte, have largely been ignored by the parties involved in the Darfur conflict.

UNAMID is expected to be deployed in Darfur in early 2008, but ICG said that when it is on the ground, the force must be more active in protecting civilians and responding to ceasefire violations.

UNAMID must prioritise protection of camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), humanitarian assistance and key transportation routes, "including by working with all parties to set up demilitarized zones around camps and humanitarian supply routes".