Aid agencies have called on Zambia's government to step up disaster preparedness to deal with possible widespread flooding forecast by the meteorological department this rainy season.

"We need to start making all the necessary preparations to mitigate the impact of the expected floods," said Annie Ritavin, country programme officer for the UK-based development agency, Oxfam, in Zambia. "We are currently conducting an assessment exercise of the most prone areas to determine the possible humanitarian needs, as part of the concerted efforts on emergency preparedness at national level."

Anderson Mulambu, senior forecast officer at the Zambia Meteorological Department, recently told local media that flooding could be expected between January and March 2008, "when we have heavy rains ... almost all the areas that were affected last season could experience the same problem this season".

Between December 2006 and January 2007 Zambia experienced torrential rains that swamped 43 of its 73 districts and affected 1.5 million people. Crops, houses, roads and bridges in the Southern, Western, North-Western, Copperbelt and Eastern provinces were washed away, and a number of schools had to close early.

Aneas Chuma, country director of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Zambia, called on the government to enhance its early-warning system and implement preparedness measures in all areas where floods were expected.

"These changes in the patterns of rainfall could be attributed to climatic changes in some ways ... we need to have a system in place that will easily avail information to all the affected people," Chuma said. "Climate change is with us now, and we just have to find better ways of coping with it; without proper, intelligent measures, the effects of this climate change could be quite devastating."

Dominiciano Mulenga, coordinator of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, said the government was trying to ascertain how many people could be at risk, but it would be a difficult task.

"The characteristics of floods change from time to time, and the facilities that were affected in the last floods might not necessarily be affected this time," he pointed out. "Some of the affected infrastructure in last year's floods have been thoroughly worked on and given a higher life-span; they may not be part of the problems of the new floods."

Government is conducting a baseline survey in all 73 districts to identify areas of vulnerability and make it easier to establish which populations would be at risk in cases of national disasters and hazards. The assessment exercise is expected to be completed by December 2008.

"We all know floods are a natural cause and, therefore, nothing can be done to prevent them. We have to wait until they come for us to know the best interventions required," Mulenga said.

"We have, however, started getting tents and several relief supplies in anticipation of the worst-case scenario, and government has increased the allocation for the contingent fund to fight national disasters."

Impact on food security

Since the flood alerts the government has come under mounting criticism by local civic organisations for exporting maize, Zambia's staple food, instead of saving for the rainy days ahead.

"This warning of the forthcoming floods is timely, and it should help the country to put in place preventative measures or mitigating factors," said Simon Kabanda, a spokesman for the Citizens Forum, a civic advocacy group. "We are very sad indeed that despite the forecast our government has continued to export maize, without first stockpiling for the local needs, as some people might be rendered vulnerable in just a few months."

Although Zambia experienced floods from December 2006 to January 2007, a crop surplus of 250,000 metric tonnes (mt) over its annual consumption requirement of 1.2 million mt was achieved. The ministry of agriculture said much of the surplus crop came from the unaffected agricultural belts in Central Province.

"The country has, so far, through the government's Food Reserve Agency [FRA], the farmers' union and the millers association, exported over 250,000 [mt] to raise money for paying all the farmers who produced maize and sold to the FRA," said agriculture minister Ben Kapita.

While the Citizens Forum were not opposed to any move that would benefit farmers, "our point is that we should first take care of our own needs; anything that we are intending to export should first be halted until we take stock of all our maize stocks from last season," said Kabanda.

"In case of a deficit, government should immediately begin to buy more maize from all possible sources and put it in the reserves, instead of waiting for a crisis to strike - then we begin panicking."