Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is in trouble: already split into feuding factions, it now risks being deserted by its key allies ahead of next year's elections.

Labour movement and civil society groups are concerned over the 'compromises' the MDC has made in low-key talks with the ruling ZANU-PF party, and a growing intolerance within the opposition party, underlined by reports of intimidation and violence against members, analysts say.

Since its formation in 1999, the MDC has presented itself as the democratic alternative to ZANU-PF. Three lost elections later - the polls in 2000 and 2002 were widely condemned as flawed - and decidedly gloves-off treatment by the authorities, have left it bruised, but not yet out.

In recognition that a political solution is required to help ease Zimbabwe's economic and humanitarian crisis, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) urged both sides into talks in March, mediated by South Africa. It was the first time the MDC has won legitimacy from regional leaders, who are concerned that Zimbabwe's meltdown represents a security and humanitarian risk to its neighbours.  

The problem for the MDC's erstwhile supporters is that it appears to have made all the political sacrifices so far, analysts say. At ZANU-PF's urging in September it accepted Constitutional Amendment No. 18, which potentially extends President Robert Mugabe's term in office, but won no guarantees on its demands to halt political violence and repeal legislation widely seen an undemocratic.

And then there has been the MDC's internal politics. The party split over leader Morgan Tsvangirai's handling of a vote by senior members of the party to participate in senate elections in 2005; last month the labour movement cut ties with Tsvangirai's faction after the popular leader of the MDC's women's wing, Lucia Matibenga, was removed from her post.

Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the Tsvangirai faction, blamed fifth columnists for stoking the unrest. "Zimbabweans should be aware of a deliberate effort by ZANU-PF agents to soil and malign the image of [party] president Tsvangirai and the MDC ahead of crucial elections," he told IRIN.

However, Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) secretary-general Wellington Chibhebhe said there was a perception that the Tsvangirai faction was trying to erase its labour origins. He told IRIN that "The removal of Matibenga is the clearest sign that the party is no longer representing the interests of workers."

Betrayal

Lovemore Madhuku, chair of the National Constitutional Assembly, a pro-democracy non-governmental organisation, said that by endorsing Constitutional Amendment No. 18 rather than wholesale reform of the country's magna carta, the MDC had put the party first, ahead of the people of Zimbabwe.

"As civic society, we felt betrayed by the MDC's endorsement of the constitutional amendments without consulting us. We have always believed that they were there for us," Madhuku told IRIN. "The MDC has always been aware that as civic society we stand for a people-driven constitution, and that we are against the piecemeal constitutional amendments which they are now supporting."

The constitutional amendment voted for by MDC MPs harmonises presidential, parliamentary and local elections. It could also extend Mugabe's term by two years until 2010 - giving him far greater flexibility in choosing a successor, an issue that has undermined ZANU-PF unity.

However, the Tsvangirai faction has questioned the purpose of continued dialogue with ZANU-PF when it is unlikely that the ruling party will ever deliver on the demands for electoral reform, and repeal laws that limit proper campaigning. But the MDC risks being sidelined once more by the SADC, should it boycott the talks, political analyst Eldred Masunungure told IRIN.

General elections are tentatively due in March, which Mugabe and ZANU-PF are widely expected to win against a demoralised opposition. "The signs of voter apathy are beginning to emerge around the country," said Rindai Chipfunde-Vava, executive director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), a civic organisation promoting democratic elections.

ZESN is holding nationwide community workshops, where "questions on how political parties can deliver democracy at national level, if they cannot ensure democracy in their political parties, have been raised often."

Madhuku said the MDC could wind up being abandoned by its original constituency. "We [civic society] are going to reorganise and realign all the democratic forces in the post-election period. We know Mugabe will still be in power next year, and we have to be ready to face him after the elections."

Zimbabwe is stuck in a seven-year recession, triggered in part by the economic fallout from the government's controversial land-reform programme and disputed elections in 2000.

Its inflation rate is the highest the world, eight out of 10 people have no formal employment, nutrition levels are deteriorating, and food, fuel and electricity shortages are commonplace. The government blames western "sanctions" for the crisis, as part of a deliberate policy to unseat Mugabe.