A peace agreement signed between the government and the various armed groups active in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), including the faction led by dissident general Laurent Nkunda, marks an important step towards restoring peace and stability in the region, according to analysts.

"I think this agreement will succeed because one person who could block it, President Joseph Kabila, has agreed to sponsor it and was present at the closing ceremony," Dieudonne Kalindye, professor of law at the University of Kinshasa, told IRIN.

Kalindye said he was encouraged by the willingness of Nkunda’s National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) to transform itself into a political party without having to worry about the legal consequences of its insurrection.

The government agreed, at the insistence of the CNDP and other armed groups, to bring to parliament a draft law on amnesty for insurgency. War crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, however, will be excluded from the legislation.

The agreement, signed 23 January in the North Kivu capital, Goma, included an immediate cessation of hostilities, disengagement of troops and the creation of a buffer zone.

In his speech after signing the accord, Kabila said peace could not be attained without dialogue and forgiveness after so many years of war but he stressed that justice would come sooner or later, with the establishment of a truth and reconciliation commission, agreed almost unanimously at the conference.

"From this perspective, justice and law are indispensable because they are the balance that will restore trust in our institutions and check the machine that has produced looters, rapists and warlords," said Kabila.

That statement raised eyebrows among many, with some saying it could put doubts in the minds of some parties about the government's commitment to reconciliation. Other observers, however, said Kabila's remarks should not be feared because all he wanted was to emphasise the importance of law and order.

"This should reassure everyone that the DRC is moving towards a state of law and the government has not waived its commitment to amnesty," said Kalindye.

Looking for pardon

"All parties - the government, CNDP and Mai Mai [traditional warriors] have agreed one thing - that war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide must not be pardoned," said Anneke van Woudenberg, senior researcher on the DRC for Human Rights Watch.

She, like Kalindye, said people who may be prosecuted for crimes that are actionable by the International Criminal Court in The Hague could be found on all sides of the civil war in the DRC.

"Nkunda, like any other person, is presumed innocent until proven guilty by competent courts," said Kalindye. "In all successive wars since [the overthrow of] Mobutu Sese Seko, acts of war have received amnesty. The Goma agreement continues the same principle. What is important now is peace, the end of the war, the return of the displaced and refugees, stability of the region and development."

The government in Kinshasa issued an arrest warrant for Nkunda in 2007 on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. There are unconfirmed reports that this warrant has lapsed and will not be renewed.

"There is a need for a proper inquiry into all violations that have been committed in the DRC. Justice will come, it takes time, and we must be reassured that it will come one day," said Van Woudenberg.

She said the successful implementation of the Goma agreement would depend on the goodwill of neighbouring Rwanda, which has been accused of supporting Nkunda, a charge it has repeatedly denied.

A Hutu-dominated armed group that fled Rwanda after the 1994 genocide, the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), has also been party to the conflict in the eastern DRC, and according to Van Woudenberg, the FDLR issue should be dealt with according to the provisions of an agreement signed in the Kenyan capital in November. Under the Nairobi agreement the FDLR should be disarmed and its members repatriated to Rwanda.

The Goma accord was signed by 40 parties, including representatives of international organisations and the US, who are required to adhere to the rules of international humanitarian law and human rights.

Return of refugees

The agreement also provides for the return of DRC refugees living in neighbouring countries under the supervision of a tripartite committee of the UN’s Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the DRC government and countries of asylum - Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania.

The return and resettlement of internally displaced people to their villages would be overseen by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN Mission in Congo (MONUC) and other humanitarian organisations.

"I do not believe the victims were adequately represented in the agreement. But there is a section which refers to the need for the displaced to return home, respect for human rights, for the respect of the refugees as well. But now, they must be at the centre of discussions - the refugees, the displaced, because it is they who must return home," stressed Van Woudenberg.

Fighting in eastern DRC has, according to UNHCR, displaced an estimated one million people since 2006.

Various clashes have pushed more than 300,000 Congolese to neighbouring countries while the DRC itself is host to almost 300,000 refugees who have fled war in neighbouring countries.

Wary locals

The reaction to the agreement from Goma residents was mixed.

"I am indifferent. I prefer to ignore everything because those who have signed the agreement fought for their own self-interest. Both the government and rebel camps may sign peace today and take up arms again tomorrow according to what suits their interest," said Ntabira Mangaribi.

"What we fear is that when the insurgents are awaiting amnesty, the president has said that justice is imperative. This declaration made after the signing of the agreement can make Nkunda and other armed groups feel concerned that charges of war crimes or crimes against humanity could be brought against them and resume the war to evade justice," said Bushiri Ngongo, a hotel manager in Goma.

"The signatories were sincere," said Jerome Buyama, a book seller. "I think the war is over because they are all in agreement. It will be good that our displaced brothers and the refugees are beginning to go back to their communities of origin. I am not afraid, I have confidence," he added.