In this edition of Tourism sphere, we explore the world and regional tourism trend, with special focus on The Gambia.

World trends
International tourist arrivals for the first eight months of 2007 point to a continuation of the sustained growth rate experienced over the past years.

 According to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, this trend is likely to continue through the remainder of 2007, with year-end growth estimated at 5.7%, which would put international arrivals to 880-900 million.

2007 is set to be the fourth year of growth above the long-term average of 4.1% and is well on track to become the third consecutive year with a differential of about 1.5% above this long-term rate.

On a month-by-month basis, growth was fairly constant:

March showed the best growth overall (+9%), this is attributed to the fact that Easter fell in March rather than April as in 2006.

Strength was maintained during the months of July and August, both showing growth over 5% and for the first time ever, both July and August topped over 100 million arrivals each.

Regional trends
Emerging destinations in Asia and the Pacific, Africa and the Middle East have been the main growth drivers. Although well above their respective long-term averages, the more mature regions of Europe and the Americas showed a more moderate pace.

While regional trends may vary as new data becomes available, Asia and the Pacific is currently the star regional performer, recording an increase through August of 10%, ahead of the Middle East and Africa, both with +8%.

Growth for both Europe and the Americas currently stands at +4%, one percentage point down on 2006’s level in the case of Europe, but twice the rate of growth of last year for the Americas.

The continued growth in international tourism has been supported by a strong global economy expanding at around 5% for the fourth consecutive year. The world’s emerging market and developing economies registered particularly strong GDP growth. The recent turbulence in the financial markets has not had any notable impact in tourism results so far.
 
The Gambian trends
January to April 2007 registered a growth of +32% against the same period in 2006.  May to September 2007 registered -9% down on 2006’s level. The downward trend during the summer months was attributed to the cessation of the Span air flight from Las Palmas and low numbers registered from both Condor and Tui flights.

However, the 2007 winter season has started positively as expected; October registered a growth of 17.6% against 2006. It is important to note that the overall arrival figure January to October, 2007, showed a significant growth of 18% against 2006.

Based on information received from 5 major Ground Tour Operators, the expected air arrival figure for the 2007/8 winter season is at 128471. This shows an expected growth rate of 19.5% compared to the 2006/2007 winter season.

This is a clear indication that the Gambia’s arrival trends are pointing upward in line with many other countries around the world as captured by UNWTO. The appreciation of the Gambian Dalasi is expected to have an impact in the purchasing power of the average tourist, but no impact is expected on the arrival figures.

Courtesy of Essa Coker
Director Marketing and Research, GTA